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The rollout of 5G wireless technology will make mobile communications dramatically faster and more efficient. But 5G could also lead to dangerous setbacks for weather forecasting. That is the worry voiced by national and international science agencies and independent experts. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC), however, which regulates U.S. wireless networks, doesn't seem concerned—and that's a big problem.

5G無線技術(shù)的推出將極大地提高移動通信的速度和效率。但是5G也可能導(dǎo)致天氣預(yù)報遭受挫折。這是國家和國際科學(xué)機(jī)構(gòu)以及獨(dú)立專家表達(dá)的擔(dān)憂。但是，監(jiān)管美國無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)的聯(lián)邦通信委員會（FCC）似乎并不擔(dān)心-這是一個大問題。

5G promises better performance than earlier generations of wireless telecommunications. Some of 5G's frequency bands, however, are perilously close to those used by weather instruments on Earth­orbiting satellites. The 5Gtransmissions at 24 gigahertz can overlap with the 23.8­GHz signal naturally emitted by atmospheric water vapor and monitored by these instruments. Visible in day or night, through clear or cloudy skies, the 23.8­GHz signal is are liable indicator of humidity that is used to sharpen weather forecasts—including the strengths, locations and paths of storms—on scales from hours to days. Unless, that is, the data are disrupted by some source of interference—such as the signals emitted by new 5G base stations and devices.

5G有望提供比早期無線通信更好的性能。但是，某些5G頻段非常接近地球軌道衛(wèi)星上的氣象儀器所使用的頻段。240千兆赫的5G傳輸可以與大氣水蒸氣自然發(fā)出的23.8千兆赫信號重疊，并由這些儀器監(jiān)控。在白天或夜晚，無論晴天還是多云，都可以看到23.8千兆赫信號，這是濕度的可靠指標(biāo)，用于從幾小時到幾天的時間范圍內(nèi)，提高天氣預(yù)報的準(zhǔn)確性，包括強(qiáng)度，位置和風(fēng)暴路徑。除非數(shù)據(jù)被某些干擾源干擾，比如新的5G基站和設(shè)備發(fā)出的信號。

That interference is measured in units called decibel watts, and several agencies have called for relatively strict limits on how much of this electronic noise is permissible—the more negative the number, the stricter. The European Commission, for example, set a maximum threshold of –42 decibel watts. But during an inaugural auction last year for U.S. rights to use the 24­GHztransmission band, the FCC set a much looser noise limit of–20 decibel watts—well in excess of ceilings based on studies from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Navy.

干擾是以分貝瓦特為單位測量的，一些機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)要求對這種電子噪音的許可強(qiáng)度進(jìn)行相對嚴(yán)格的限制-數(shù)字越負(fù)，就越嚴(yán)格。例如，歐盟委員會將最大閾值設(shè)置為–42分貝。但是，在去年針對美國使用24GHz傳輸頻帶的權(quán)利的首次拍賣中，F(xiàn)CC根據(jù)美國國家航空航天局、美國國家海洋與大氣管理局(NOAA)和美國海軍的研究，將噪音限制放寬至20分貝瓦特，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了上限。

After the auction, NOAA acting administrator Neil Jacobs told Congress that the FCC's lax noise limits would result in as much as a 77 percent drop in satellite water vapor data. This, Jacobs said, could lead to a two­ to three­day lagin predicting the movements of hurricanes, effectively throwing the nation's satellite­based forecasting capabilities back to 1980levels. Moreover, Jacobs testified, 5G interference could force NOAA to abandon plans for new weather satellites.

拍賣結(jié)束后，美國國家海洋和大氣管理局代理局長尼爾·雅各布斯告訴國會，聯(lián)邦通信委員會寬松的噪音限制將導(dǎo)致衛(wèi)星水蒸汽數(shù)據(jù)下降77%。雅各布斯說，這可能會導(dǎo)致未來兩到三天的颶風(fēng)運(yùn)動預(yù)測滯后，從而使美國以衛(wèi)星為基礎(chǔ)的預(yù)測能力推回到1980年的水平。此外，雅各布斯證實(shí)，5G干擾可能會迫使NOAA放棄新的氣象衛(wèi)星計(jì)劃。

Yet late last fall delegates of the International Telecommunication Union Radio communication Sector (ITU­R), the organization managing global radio­spectrum use, agreed to introductory 5G noise limits of between –29 and –33 decibel watts. Taking effect this year, the ITU­R limits are more stringent than the FCC's but are still likely to be a problem for meteorologists.

然而，去年秋天，管理全球無線電頻譜使用的國際電信聯(lián)盟(ITUR)的代表們同意引入介于–29至–33分貝瓦之間的5G噪聲限值。從今年起生效，ITU­R的限制比FCC的限制更為嚴(yán)格，但對于氣象學(xué)家來說仍可能是一個問題。

Responding to congressional concerns before last spring's auction, commission chair Ajit Pai defended the decisions on 5Gnoise limits, calling criticisms "exaggerated and unverified last minute assertions." Yet it is the FCC, not its critics, that is failing to validate its claims: as of this writing, the commission has yet to produce any study supporting its recommended 5G noise limits. Meanwhile the agency is planning auctions of other5G­frequency bands that overlap with satellite monitoring of precipitation, clouds and sea ice.

針對國會在去年春季拍賣前的擔(dān)憂，委員會主席阿吉特•帕伊(Ajit Pai)為有關(guān)5G噪音限制的決定辯護(hù)，稱批評“在最后一刻被夸大和未經(jīng)證實(shí)”。然而，未能驗(yàn)證其說法的是FCC，而不是它的批評者:在撰寫本文時，委員會尚未拿出任何支持其建議的5G噪聲限制的研究。與此同時，該機(jī)構(gòu)正在計(jì)劃拍賣與衛(wèi)星監(jiān)測降水，云層和海冰重疊的其他5G頻段。

These actions are part of a broader, more disturbing pattern of imperious behavior by the FCC. The agency has already opened up previously protected regions of the radio spectrum for new uses while rapidly moving forward with approvals for globe girdling constellations of satellites offering broadband Internet.

這些行動是FCC更廣泛、更令人不安的專橫行為模式的一部分。該機(jī)構(gòu)已經(jīng)開放了以前受保護(hù)的無線電頻譜區(qū)域，以供新用途，同時迅速推進(jìn)對全球?qū)拵Щヂ?lián)網(wǎng)衛(wèi)星星座的批準(zhǔn)。

Both types of activity could degrade a wide array of astronomical observations from ground­based telescopes, and a massive influx of new satellites also poses significant risks of creating more "space junk," which already threatens existingorbital assets, including the International Space Station.

這兩種類型的活動都可能使地面望遠(yuǎn)鏡的大量天文觀測數(shù)據(jù)質(zhì)量下降，而大量新衛(wèi)星的涌入也會帶來產(chǎn)生更多“太空垃圾”的重大風(fēng)險，這已經(jīng)威脅到包括國際空間站在內(nèi)的現(xiàn)有軌道資產(chǎn)。

Fortunately, the FCC is not unaccountable. In a rare instance of congressional bipartisanship, in December 2019 the top Democrat and Republican on the House Science Committee jointly asked the Government Accountability Office to investigate why, exactly, the FCC's 5G recommendations di?er so strongly from those of other federal agencies.

幸運(yùn)的是，F(xiàn)CC并不是不負(fù)責(zé)任的。在國會罕見的兩黨合作中，2019年12月，眾議院科學(xué)委員會最高民主黨和共和黨人共同要求政府問責(zé)辦公室調(diào)查為什么FCC的5G建議與其他聯(lián)邦機(jī)構(gòu)的建議如此強(qiáng)烈地不同。

This is a good start. Congress should use its considerable powers, budgetary and otherwise, to increase pressure on the FCC to "show its work" and to engage more meaningfully with dissenting government agencies, scientific institutions and other stakeholders to develop sustainable solutions for 5G—and for accurate weather forecasting.